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“2025铝业绿色变革：技术创新下的机遇与挑战”

福禄装修家居
2025-04-12 20:39

2025 Global Aluminum Industry Development Study 2025 Global Aluminum Industry Development Study

Green Transformation, Technological Innovation, and Trade Reconstruction Drive Industry Change

Author: Feng Yuehong, Aluminum Industry Economic Research Expert

Part One: Trend Development: Dual Drive of Greening and Technological Innovation

The global aluminum industry in 2025 is undergoing profound changes, with green transformation and technological innovation as the core driving forces.

Recycled aluminum accelerates the replacement of primary aluminum. The global recycled aluminum industry is entering a period of rapid growth, with China's recycled aluminum production expected to reach 11.5 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 5%-6% over the next five years. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is forcing enterprises to increase the use of recycled aluminum, and China's "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)" explicitly states that the recycled aluminum production target by 2027 will be 15 million tons. The energy consumption of recycled aluminum is only 5% of primary aluminum, making it a core path for carbon reduction.

Clean energy restructures production capacity. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is accelerating its shift to hydropower and photovoltaic rich areas. The southwest region of China relies on hydropower resources, with the proportion of green electricity used in electrolytic aluminum exceeding 30%. However, due to energy crises, production capacity in Europe has contracted, with the EU's electrolytic aluminum production in 2024 falling below 3.2 million tons. Advanced technologies such as molten salt reactor power generation and nuclear fusion are considered as ultimate energy solutions.

Technological innovation breaks through industrial bottlenecks. Molten salt alumina electrolysis is still the mainstream technology, but carbon dioxide recovery and utilization technologies (such as CCUS) are rapidly becoming popular. Research and development of high-end products such as aluminum-based composites and high-strength, high-toughness aluminum alloys is accelerating. China is leading in the technology of electrolytic cells with 500kA and above, accounting for 45% of the global share.

Part Two: Industry Scale: China Leads the Global Supply Chain

1. Production and consumption pattern In 2024, the global primary aluminum production was 72.758 million tons, with China accounting for 59% (44 million tons), the EU and North America accounting for 8% and 3%, respectively. In terms of consumption, China accounts for 55% of the global total, with demand in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic fields growing significantly faster than in traditional industries.

2. High level of resource dependence China's import dependence on bauxite is over 70%, with an expected import volume of 160 million tons in 2025, driving the continuous upward trend of global bauxite prices. Guinea, Vietnam, and Australia account for 55.7% of the global reserves, while China's reserves only account for 2.4%.

3. Tight balance of market supply and demand In 2025, the global primary aluminum supply and demand are basically balanced. China's production growth is 3%, but the export of aluminum products is expected to decrease by 80-90 million tons due to the cancellation of the tax refund policy, turning to the export of high-value-added products. The capacity of alumina production expanded to 130 million tons, and the competition for bauxite resources intensified.